Speculation and Conspiracy Theories Surge After Assassination Attempt on Trump

In the immediate aftermath of the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump at an election rally in Pennsylvania, a whirlwind of speculation and conspiracy theories took over social media. The attack, which took place amidst a fervent crowd of supporters, has raised critical questions about the motive behind the shooting, the performance of the Secret Service, and even suggestions that the event might have been staged.

"The common theme among conspiracy theories is ultimately a search for explanation," PeakMetrics head of insights, Molly Dwyer, shared with ABC News Australia. “When there's an information void like this, people will naturally turn to explanations like conspiracy theories to fill that cognitive gap."

Despite widespread concerns about misinformation in the media, the most prevalent narrative following the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump was one of thoughts and prayers. Among social media posts across X and Telegram discussing the attack, where a bullet pierced Trump’s ear, posts expressing solidarity, prayers, and encouragement for the former president accounted for 17.15%, according to PeakMetrics narrative intelligence. Notably, these supportive messages primarily originated from individuals rather than major news corporations or influencers. 

So, what conspiracy theories rose to the top? 

In the chaotic hours following the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, conspiracy theories quickly rose to prominence, accounting for nearly 4% of all posts surrounding the incident. Within the first 17 hours, that number climbed to 12% of all posts, according to PeakMetrics narrative intelligence.

A significant portion (roughly 5%) of these conspiracy posts accused Democrats of adopting rhetoric that instigated the attack. These claims rapidly gained traction among influential voices, including the Kremlin, RT, a pro-police organization, a pro-Russian Telegram account, Rep. Mike Collins, Fox News contributor Joe Concha, and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. Notably, Rep. Greene re-posted a video created by a fringe Australian conservative blog to emphasize her point, further amplifying the narrative.

Other conspiracy theories included accusations that the Chinese were behind the attempt and claims that the shooter was an Antifa member. Both of these conspiracies were shared by accounts with low follower counts, making up 0.37% and 0.21% of all posts, respectively.

Interestingly, PeakMetrics found that the Antifa claim surged one full day after the shooting, even as some other conspiracy theories began to quiet down. 

What about the Secret Service? 

Immediately following the shooting, the reaction to law enforcement and the Secret Service was mixed. Findings from PeakMetrics showed that posts expressing gratitude to law enforcement accounted for 3.35% of the dataset, while posts criticizing the Secret Service for failing to prevent the assassination attempt made up 3.07%. 

In the hours that followed, speculation became rampant about how the assassination attempt on former President Trump could have occurred, with perceived failures of the Secret Service in preventing the shooting fueling conspiracy theories and dominating discussions as more information emerged.

The public is frankly shocked that such a security breach is possible. The improbability of such a failure by the Secret Service and local police has led people to seek alternative explanations online — including conspiracy theories, false narratives, and misinformation.

As mentions of some key conspiracy theories — from ANTIFA to false flag to deep state — began to decline, PeakMetrics observed a ~10% increase in the share of mentions on X (formerly Twitter) criticizing the Secret Service as ineffective.

“For many, it's difficult to believe that such a prestigious organization could fail so miserably. In some ways, conspiracy theories offer a more comfortable explanation than accepting that the organizations tasked with protecting the country can make significant errors,” shares Molly Dwyer. 

Gun Control Narratives Failed to Gain Momentum 

While gun control narratives typically spike following a shooting, Democratic efforts to condemn the violence after the assassination attempt on Trump were largely ineffective on social media. According to data from PeakMetrics, posts condemning the violence comprised only 1.42% of the dataset.

Similarly, posts linking the assassination attempt to the gun control debate in the upcoming election accounted for only 0.88% of the posts. These findings suggest that these narratives did not resonate widely or significantly impact public discourse, reflecting a limited influence of gun control discussions in the immediate aftermath of the attack.

PeakMetrics’ analysis following the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump underscores the complexity of public reactions and media reporting in the digital age. Despite widespread concerns about misinformation, the predominant response was one of emotional support for Trump, driven primarily by grassroots social media activity. This highlights the varied influence of different narratives and the crucial role of understanding social media dynamics in the context of significant political events.

Methodology

PeakMetrics conducted a comprehensive analysis by randomly sampling 5,144 X and Telegram posts related to the assassination attempt on Trump. The analysis included calculating the total count, percent of posts, total user follower count, and average user follower count for each narrative. This approach allowed for a detailed understanding of the narratives that emerged and their influence on social media platforms. The data was collected from X and Telegram posts made between 1800 EST on July 13 and 0100 EST on July 14.

Bonus Insights: Social Media Analysis of the Reaction to JD Vance’s VP Nomination

On Monday, Trump named Ohio Senator JD Vance as his VP pick. At the announcement peak at 4pm ET on Monday, online chatter on X (Twitter) describing JD Vance as an extremist far outpaced mentions of Vance as a unifying choice with broad appeal. 

• Mentions of Vance as an extremist outpaced mentions of Vance as a unifying choice with broad appeal by 40%.

• JD Vance and abortion comprised a significant share of the online conversation at its peak, about 7% of all Vance mentions. 
  • Vance and abortion mentions rose to ~22,824 posts on X (Twitter). 
• Mentions of Vance and abortion outpaced mentions of Vance and Project 2025, comprising just over 4% of all Vance mentions. 
  • Vance and Project 2025 mentions rose to ~13,213 posts on X (Twitter).

PeakMetrics In the News: 

•  The Associated Press’s David Klepper interviews PeakMetrics senior intelligence analyst Paul Bartel following the assassination attempt.

• The New York Times highlights a timeline provided by PeakMetrics on the “Democrats are responsible for Trump’s assassination attempt” narrative.
• The Wall Street Journal reports that in the first 17 hours after the attack, some 12% of posts on X and Telegram discussing the event were conspiracy theories.
• USA Today dedicates an article to PeakMetrics’ findings.
• The Wrap shares a quote from PeakMetrics senior intelligence analyst Paul Bartel.  
• The Telegraph shines a light on the share of social media posts that reference conspiracy theories following the assassination attempt across two articles.

The Marketplace Tech podcast features an interview with PeakMetrics' head of insights, Molly Dwyer.