2024 Holiday Shopping Trends: Tariffs, Consumer Spending, and Retailer Strategies

The 2024 holiday shopping season has introduced unique dynamics influenced by tariffs, inflation, and evolving consumer behaviors. While certain economic policies and political statements have shaped news cycles, the online conversation about their impact on holiday spending remains surprisingly muted in some areas. Here’s a closer look at how tariffs, consumer spending, and retailer strategies are intersecting in this year’s holiday shopping trends.

Tariffs: A Quiet Conversation Amid Holiday Shopping

Despite concerns over tariffs affecting consumer choices during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, the online conversation around this topic has been notably low. On November 25th, when President-Elect Trump reiterated his commitment to imposing tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, PeakMetrics detected less than 100 posts on X (formerly Twitter) linking tariffs with holiday shopping. This figure pales in comparison to the approximately 240,000 total posts about holiday shopping on the same day.

Interestingly, the online conversation about tariffs and holiday spending had its peak earlier, on November 22nd between 10 AM and 11 AM ET, with roughly 50 posts per hour mentioning the subject. This spike predated Trump's overnight statement on Truth Social about tariffs.

Even as media coverage has increased since Trump’s November 25th announcement, the narrative linking tariffs directly to Black Friday or holiday spending remains niche. News outlets like MarketWatch have begun advising consumers to consider purchasing big-ticket items ahead of potential tariff impacts, which may yet influence online discussions in the final days of the shopping season.

Consumer Behavior: Waiting for Black Friday Deals

Another notable trend identified by PeakMetrics is the growing consumer focus on high-priced items, particularly electronics and appliances, in the lead-up to Black Friday. Many posts on X highlight users delaying purchases to take advantage of holiday deals. This aligns with broader narratives advising shoppers to buy items like electronics before tariffs potentially drive prices higher.

As inflation continues to pressure household budgets, the desire for discounts on big-ticket items is shaping how consumers approach holiday spending. Retailers are responding with strategies aimed at addressing these concerns, which bring us to specific retailer spotlights.

Retailer Spotlight: Target’s Price Cuts Amid Sagging Demand

Target, grappling with lackluster sales during the holiday season, has opted for aggressive price cuts to attract shoppers. The retailer recently reported a significant Q3 earnings miss, attributing the downturn to “unique challenges” and rising costs.

Media outlets such as CNN and Reuters have covered this extensively, framing Target's move as a necessary response to a sluggish retail environment. By reducing prices, Target aims to combat waning consumer spending and boost holiday sales. However, this approach underscores broader concerns about the retail industry’s health during a period traditionally marked by robust sales.

Retailer Spotlight: Walmart Adjusts DEI Policies

In a different narrative, Walmart has made headlines for rolling back its diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) policies. The move appears to be a response to conservative backlash against “woke” corporate practices, with activist Robby Starbuck urging boycotts of brands embracing DEI initiatives.

PeakMetrics identified a surge in posts about Walmart on November 25th, with 55% of the total 8,490 posts mentioning keywords like DEI, wokeness, or LGBTQ/Pride products and initiatives. This online discourse was particularly active between 8 PM and 9 PM ET, reflecting the controversy surrounding Walmart’s revised stance.

Key Takeaways for Holiday Retail Trends

1. Muted Tariff Conversation: While political statements about tariffs have sparked news coverage, they have yet to generate significant online chatter about holiday shopping impacts.
2. Consumer Focus on Big-Ticket Items: Shoppers are delaying purchases to capitalize on Black Friday deals, particularly for high-cost goods like electronics and appliances.
3. Retailer Strategies Diverge: Target is prioritizing price cuts to address weak consumer demand, while Walmart is navigating sociopolitical backlash by revising its DEI policies.

As the holiday season unfolds, these narratives will likely evolve, influenced by last-minute deals, consumer behaviors, and ongoing media coverage. Retailers and consumers alike are navigating a complex landscape shaped by economic pressures, political developments, and shifting priorities.